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Hurricane ODILE Forecast Discussion Number 18
2014-09-14 16:56:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 141456 TCDEP5 HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014 After rapidly strengthening during the past 24 hours, it appears that the intensity of Odile has leveled off for now. Microwave images indicate that the cyclone has a double eyewall structure, with the inner eyewall surrounding the 10-15 n mi diameter eye, and the outer one located about 40-50 n mi from the center. Satellite intensity estimates remain 115 kt, and that value is kept for the initial wind speed. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Odile later today, and should provide a better assessment of the strength and structure of this hurricane. The major hurricane is moving northwestward at about 12 kt, steered by a ridge located to its northeast. A continued northwestward motion is expected during the next 3 to 4 days with a gradual decrease in forward speed due to a strengthening trough off the U.S. west coast. By the end of the forecast period, the shallow cyclone is expected to become stationary or drift eastward in the low-level flow. The models are tightly clustered for most of the forecast period, and the NHC track forecast is close to the consensus aids. This track takes the center of Odile very near the southern Baja California west coast later today, and then just offshore and parallel to the coast for the next several days. The observed concentric eyewall structure, which is fairly common in mature hurricanes like Odile, typically causes intensity fluctuations in the short term, and the NHC intensity forecast shows little change in strength during the next 24 hours. Odile will be moving over cool water and into a drier airmass in 36 to 48 hours. These unfavorable thermodynamic conditions should cause the cyclone to quickly weaken. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and not too different than the intensity model consensus, IVCN. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center of Odile. In addition, moisture from a disturbance over northeastern Mexico and the Pacific ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's circulation northwestward across Mexico into the southwestern United States by early next week. This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in those areas. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 20.0N 108.2W 115 KT 135 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 21.7N 109.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 23.5N 111.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 24.9N 112.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 25.9N 113.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 27.5N 115.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 28.1N 116.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 28.3N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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