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Hurricane ODILE Forecast Discussion Number 19
2014-09-14 22:58:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 142058 TCDEP5 HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014 Odile has been undergoing a concentric eyewall cycle since the previous advisory, and an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has found an inner eye of about 10-12 nmi diameter and an outer eye of 36 nmi diameter. Despite this normally unfavorable inner-core structure, the central pressure has decreased to 922 mb and the 700- mb maximum flight-level winds have increased from 122 kt to 134 kt during the two passes through the northeastern quadrant. The highest SFMR winds measured thus far have only been around 100 kt. However, given the strong flight-level winds and the very low central pressure, the initial intensity has only been decreased slightly to 110 kt, which is a blend of the SFMR winds and surface-adjusted flight-level winds. Major Hurricane Odile is moving north-northwestward or 330/13 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track reasoning. A strong deep-layer ridge over Mexico is expected to keep Odile moving north-northwestward to northwestward during the next 72 hours. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to rapidly weaken, with the low-level circulation decoupling from the mid- and upper-level circulations. By Days 4 and 5, the shallow cyclone is expected to become stationary or drift eastward within weak low-level westerly flow. The models are tightly clustered through 72 hours, but diverge significantly after that with the ECMWF model taking Odile intact across northern Baja and into the southwestern U.S., while the GFS model keeps Odile's remnant low west of Baja California. The official forecast leans heavily toward the GFS model on Days 4 and 5 due to the expected rapid weakening of Odile. The NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly closer to Baja California, but not as far eastward as the consensus model TCVE. Given that the central pressure has continued to decrease, and satellite imagery and recon data suggest that the concentric eyewall cycle could be coming to an end, some re-strengthening overnight during the convective maximum period is a very distinct possibility. During the 12-36 hour time frame, interaction with the mountainous terrain of Baja California should induce gradual weakening. By 48 hours and beyond, rapid weakening is expected due to sharply decreasing sea-surface temperatures and increasing southwesterly wind shear. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is close to the consensus model IVCN. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center of Odile. In addition, moisture from a disturbance over northeastern Mexico and the Pacific ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's circulation northwestward across Mexico into the southwestern United States by early next week. This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in those areas. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 21.1N 108.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 22.6N 110.1W 115 KT 135 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 24.2N 111.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 25.4N 112.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 26.5N 113.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 27.8N 115.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 28.3N 115.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 28.5N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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