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Hurricane ODILE Forecast Discussion Number 23
2014-09-15 22:43:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 152043 TCDEP5 HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 200 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014 Visible satellite images show that the center of Odile remains well defined while inland over central Baja California Sur. An Air Force plane flying over the Gulf of California recently measured surface winds approaching hurricane strength. While the Dvorak technique is not valid for cyclones over land, using the inland Decay rate yields a current intensity estimate of 70 kt. It should be noted that these highest winds are likely occurring over a very small area. The official intensity forecast follows the Decay-SHIPS model very closely and shows the system weakening to a tropical storm in 12 hours and to a depression in 48 hours. In 3-4 days, the system should degenerate into a remnant low. This is similar to the previous NHC wind speed forecast. Given the mountainous terrain of the Baja California peninsula, the rate of weakening could be even faster than anticipated. The hurricane continues moving northwestward or 325/11 kt. A mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico should steer Odile northwestward to north-northwestward for the next day or so. Afterwards, a low-level trough over southern California should cause the weakening cyclone to turn northward and then northeastward. The official forecast track is similar to the previous one and to a consensus of the latest GFS and ECMWF forecasts. Moisture is forecast to be advected northward by Odile's circulation over the next few days. This, along with the slow motion of Odile or its remnant low, will likely result in locally heavy rains and possible flooding over portions of the southwestern United States. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 25.5N 111.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 26.8N 112.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 16/1800Z 28.0N 113.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/0600Z 29.0N 113.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/1800Z 29.7N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 18/1800Z 30.8N 112.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 19/1800Z 31.5N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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