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Hurricane ORLENE Forecast Discussion Number 13
2016-09-14 04:49:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE SEP 13 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 140249 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016 800 PM PDT TUE SEP 13 2016 Microwave satellite imagery indicates that the inner-core convection of Orlene has steadily degraded during the past 6 hours, with the eyewall no longer closed. The eye briefly appeared in visible and infrared imagery around 0000Z, but is not evident in conventional satellite imagery. The initial remains at 75 kt based on consensus subjective satellite estimates of T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB. The microwave and conventioanl satellite data indicate that Orlene is drifting northward or 360/01 kt. The cyclone is expected to remain nearly stationary overnight, embedded within a narrow break in the subtropical ridge. A slow westward motion is expected to begin by early Wednesday as a shortwave trough lifts out, allowing the ridge to build back in to the north of Orlene in 12-24 hours. After that time, the ridge is forecast to steadily stengthen, forcing the cyclone on a general westward direction at a much faster forward speed. The new forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus model TVCN and a beldn of the GFS and ECMWF model solutions. Although moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear currently affecting the cyclone is forecast to decrease to around 5 kt throughout the forecast period, the cyclone will also be moving over near 26 deg C SSTs and into a very dry and stable airmass. The result sould be a gradual erosion of the inner-core convection, causing the cyclone to slowly but steadily weaken. The new NHC intensity forecast is similr to the previous intensity forecast, and closley follows the SHIPS and LGEM intensity guidance, which is just a little above the intensity consensus model IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 20.4N 118.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 20.4N 119.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 20.4N 120.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 20.2N 121.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 20.1N 123.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 19.9N 128.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 19.9N 133.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 20.8N 137.3W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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