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Hurricane ORLENE Forecast Discussion Number 14
2016-09-14 10:41:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED SEP 14 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 140841 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016 200 AM PDT WED SEP 14 2016 There has been little change in the structure of Orlene overnight. Recent microwave data indicate that the center is a little farther south than previously estimated, and it is located near the southern portion of the small central dense overcast. A blend of the latest Dvorak T- and CI-numbers results in an initial wind speed estimate of 70 kt for this advisory. Vertical shear over Orlene is forecast to decrease today and remain very low during the next several days, however, the tropical cyclone is forecast to be over marginally warm SSTs and move into a drier and more stable air mass. These environmental conditions are expected to result in gradual weakening of Orlene during the next several days. The new NHC intensity forecast is slightly lower than the previous advisory during the first 24 hours, but is unchanged thereafter and is in good agreement with the IVCN intensity model consensus. Orlene has become nearly stationary overnight as it is located within a break in the subtropical ridge. The ridge is forecast to re-strengthen during the next couple of days, which should produce a west or west-southwestward motion at a faster forward speed. Late in the forecast period, a large mid- to upper-level low expected to be well northeast of the Hawaiian Islands should produce a break in the subtropical ridge, allowing the cyclone to turn west-northwestward. The track guidance is in much better agreement than a day ago, and the updated NHC forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 20.2N 118.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 20.2N 119.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 20.0N 120.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 19.9N 122.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 19.8N 124.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 19.8N 129.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 20.1N 134.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 21.5N 138.7W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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