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Hurricane ORLENE Forecast Discussion Number 15
2016-09-14 17:01:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED SEP 14 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 141501 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016 800 AM PDT WED SEP 14 2016 A combination of conventional and microwave satellite data indicates there has been little change in the structure of Orlene since the last advisory, with the low-level center still displaced to the south of the upper-level center. Satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB are unchanged since the last advisory, so the initial intensity remains 70 kt. However, objective estimates suggest this could be a bit generous. There is no change in the philosophy of the intensity forecast. Vertical shear is decreasing over Orlene and it is forecast to remain low during the next several days. However, the tropical cyclone is forecast to be over marginally warm SSTs and move into a drier and more stable air mass. These environmental conditions are expected to result in a gradual weakening during the forecast period. The new NHC intensity forecast is changed little since the previous advisory and remains in good agreement with the IVCN intensity model consensus. The initial motion is now a westward drift of 270/2. A faster motion toward the west and west-southwest is forecast during the next 3-4 days as the subtropical ridge strengthens to the north of the cyclone. Late in the forecast period, a large mid- to upper-level low expected to be well northeast of the Hawaiian Islands should produce a break in the subtropical ridge, allowing the cyclone to turn west-northwestward. The new forecast track is similar to, but a little south of, the previous track in agreement with the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 20.1N 119.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 20.0N 120.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 19.8N 121.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 19.7N 123.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 19.6N 126.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 19.5N 131.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 20.0N 136.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 21.5N 140.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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