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Hurricane ORLENE Forecast Discussion Number 16
2016-09-14 22:48:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED SEP 14 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 142047 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016 200 PM PDT WED SEP 14 2016 The satellite signature of Orlene continues to slowly decay, with a small area of cold convection remaining near a cloud-filled eye. The various satellite intensity estimates have decreased since the last advisory, and the initial intensity is reduced to a possibly generous 65 kt. There is no change in the philosophy of the intensity forecast. Orlene is forecast to be in an area of light vertical wind shear for the next 3-4 days, after which the shear is forecast to increase again. Even with the favorable shear, the tropical cyclone is forecast to be over marginally warm SSTs and move into a drier and more stable air mass. These environmental conditions are expected to result in gradual weakening during the forecast period. The new NHC intensity forecast is again changed little since the previous advisory and it lies on the low side of the intensity guidance in best agreement with the SHIPS model. Orlene is moving a little faster toward the west or 270/5. A faster motion toward the west and west-southwest is forecast during the next 3-4 days as the subtropical ridge strengthens to the north of the cyclone. Late in the forecast period, a large mid- to upper-level low expected to be well northeast of the Hawaiian Islands should produce a break in the subtropical ridge, allowing the cyclone to turn west-northwestward. The forecast guidance had shifted southward since the last advisory, especially after 48 hours. Thus, the new forecast track is also shifted southward from 72-120 hours. However, it still lies north of the center of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 20.2N 119.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 19.9N 120.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 19.8N 122.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 19.7N 124.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 19.5N 127.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 19.5N 132.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 19.5N 137.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 21.0N 141.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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