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Hurricane Otis Forecast Discussion Number 26
2017-09-18 04:37:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 17 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 180237 TCDEP5 Hurricane Otis Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 17 2017 Otis's rapid intensification rate has leveled off over the past few hours, with the small clear eye not quite as distinct as earlier. Still, the cloud pattern of the hurricane remains well organized. While the 0000 UTC Dvorak estimates had subjective values near 90 kt, a 6-hourly data-T average was 105 kt. As a blend of these data, the initial wind speed is set to 100 kt. Otis is moving over marginal SSTs now, so any further intensification is expected to be slight. By tomorrow night, a combination of lower SSTs, drier air and an increase in southerly shear is forecast to cause a significant weakening of Otis. Almost all of the guidance show rapid weakening by early Tuesday, and this is the solution provided in the new NHC wind speed prediction. Global models suggest Otis will lose organized deep convection within about 3 days, so the cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low at that time. Otis is moving faster to the north, now at 7 kt. The hurricane should take a sharp westward turn in about 24 hours as it runs into a building ridge over the eastern Pacific, then turn west-southwest or southwest under that ridge. Very little change was made to the previous forecast, which lies between the model consensus and the ECMWF model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 18.0N 127.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 18.9N 127.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 19.4N 127.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 19.4N 128.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 19.0N 129.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 17.6N 131.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/0000Z 16.1N 134.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/0000Z 14.8N 137.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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