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Hurricane RACHEL Forecast Discussion Number 15
2014-09-28 04:31:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 280231 TCDEP3 HURRICANE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014 Satellite imagery shows that the eye of Rachel has become somewhat better defined during the past several hours, and that the cloud tops in the eyewall have cooled. Satellite intensity estimates are now 77 kt from TAFB and SAB, and an objective estimate from the CIMSS ADT is 75 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 75 kt. The initial motion is now 340/6. Rachel is moving into a weakness in the subtropical ridge caused by a large deep-layer trough over the western United States. The large-scale models forecast the trough to move eastward after 12-24 hours, leaving Rachel stuck in an area of weak steering currents for a day or two. Beyond that time, Rachel or its remnants should be steered southwestward by a low-level ridge over the northeastern Pacific. There is little change in the guidance since the last advisory, and the new forecast track is almost identical to the previous forecast. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight. After that, a combination of increasing shear and the entrainment of a dry and stable airmass should cause a quick weakening. The new intensity forecast follows the previous forecast in calling for Rachel to degenerate to a remnant low in about three days time. The new forecast is a little stronger than the previous forecast from 12-48 hours based on the initial intensity, and it is in best agreement with the SHIPS model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 20.7N 116.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 21.4N 116.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 22.1N 117.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 22.2N 117.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 22.0N 117.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 21.0N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/0000Z 20.5N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/0000Z 19.5N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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