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Hurricane RACHEL Forecast Discussion Number 17
2014-09-28 16:45:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 281445 TCDEP3 HURRICANE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014 Rachel's cloud pattern has become much less organized. The central dense overcast has taken on a distorted appearance, with cold-topped deep convection more asymmetrically distributed. An intermittent eye seen earlier in nighttime visible imagery disappeared several hours ago. Although Dvorak intensity estimates are unchanged from 0600 UTC, the initial intensity estimate is lowered to 70 kt, given the recent degradation of the cyclone's satellite signature. A considerable increase in southwesterly shear is expected during the next 24-48 hours in association with a deep mid-latitude trough passing through the western United States. The increase in shear, coupled with substantially less conducive thermodynamic factors, are expected to result in steady weakening that could become more rapid than indicated in the forecast. The NHC wind speed forecast shows a faster rate of weakening relative to the previous one, but remnant low status is still indicated by day 3. Rachel continues on a slow north-northwestward track, or 340/06, on the western periphery of a mid-level ridge near western Mexico. The cyclone's forward speed is expected to decrease further during the next day or so as it reaches a col area, and Rachel may come to a temporary halt in about 36 hours. With significant weakening occurring during this time, a much-shallower Rachel should begin to come under the influence of the low-level trade wind flow after this time and turn southwestward and westward with increasing forward speed. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and the bulk of the track guidance but not as far south and west as the ECMWF solution. Only the GFS continues to insist on a track farther to the right and faster as a consequence of a stronger and more coupled vortex, responding to the deep-layer flow associated with the previously mentioned mid-latitude trough. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 21.5N 117.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 22.0N 117.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 22.4N 117.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 22.3N 117.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 22.1N 117.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 21.3N 118.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/1200Z 21.0N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/1200Z 20.5N 122.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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