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Hurricane RACHEL Forecast Discussion Number 18
2014-09-28 22:40:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 282040 TCDEP3 HURRICANE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014 The cloud pattern of Rachel has not changed very much in visible satellite imagery during the past several hours. A ragged banded-type eye has occasionally been evident in visible imagery and recent microwave data has shown a similar feature. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates have decreased slightly so the initial wind speed has been reduced to 65 kt. Increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and a less favorable thermodynamic environment are expected to cause steady weakening during the next couple of days, and Rachel should weaken to a tropical depression in about 48 hours. The cyclone is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low shortly thereafter. The updated NHC intensity forecast is close to the multi-model consensus. Rachel appears to be slowing down, with an initial motion estimate of 340/4 kt. The latest track guidance has become more divergent with the GFS and HWRF taking Rachel more northward, then northeastward in southwesterly flow between a mid-level ridge over Mexico and a trough moving across the western United States. On the other hand, the ECMWF and GFS ensemble mean show less of a poleward motion as the cyclone weakens and become a more shallow system. The NHC forecast leans toward the latter solution and shows Rachel moving slowly northward during the next 24 hours, then turning west-southwestward in the low-level flow after weakening occurs. The new forecast is similar to, but a little slower than the previous NHC advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 21.7N 117.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 22.3N 117.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 22.6N 117.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 22.6N 117.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 22.5N 117.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 22.0N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/1800Z 22.0N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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