je.st
news
Hurricane RACHEL Forecast Discussion Number 19
2014-09-29 04:58:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 290257 TCDEP3 HURRICANE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014 Rachel has made a little bit of a resurgence since the previous advisory, with a well-defined 15-20 nmi diameter low- to mid-level eye apparent in various microwave satellite images. Visible satellite imagery during the past few hours also indicates a small ring of overshooting cloud tops beginning to encircle a ragged, cloud-filled eye. The only reason the initial intensity is being maintained at 65 kt is due to the lack of persistence in the recent increase in the inner-core convection. The initial motion estimate is 355/4 kt, which is based primarily on microwave satellite fix positions. The most recent NHC track model guidance has become less divergent since the previous advisory, with the 18Z GFS model now taking Rachel more westward after 24 hours. Overall, the models are in pretty good agreement on steering currents collapsing during the next 48 hours, resulting in Rachel becoming nearly stationary during that time, followed by a westward or southwestward drift as a remnant low pressure system. The official forecast track is similar to the previous advisory advisory track and the consensus model TVCE. Rachel is currently over 26C sea-surface temperatures, and the small cyclone will be moving over slightly cooler water during the next 48 hours. The cooler water, in combination with increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 25 kt by 36 hours, should induce gradual weakening throughout the forecast period with Rachel degenerating into a remnant low pressure system by 48 hours or so. This intensity forecast is consistent with a blend of the intensity consensus model IVCN and the Decay-SHIPS model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 22.5N 117.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 22.8N 117.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 23.0N 117.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 22.9N 117.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 22.8N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/0000Z 22.5N 118.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/0000Z 22.4N 119.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
rachel
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||