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Hurricane Rafael Public Advisory Number 19
2024-11-08 06:58:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 080558 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Special Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 1200 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 ...RAFAEL STRENGTHENS INTO MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.7N 87.5W ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM NNE OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Rafael. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 87.5 West. Rafael is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a general westward to west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to move over the central Gulf of Mexico for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Rafael is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible today. A weakening trend is forecast to begin late tonight and continue through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Rafael Forecast Advisory Number 19
2024-11-08 06:57:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0600 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 080557 TCMAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0600 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 87.5W AT 08/0600Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..135NE 105SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 87.5W AT 08/0600Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 86.6W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.7N 88.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.8N 89.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.1N 91.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.2N 91.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.3N 92.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.9N 92.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 23.7N 93.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 22.0N 93.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 87.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-11-08 06:41:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 080541 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Rafael, located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Near Greater Antilles: A trough of low pressure located near north of Puerto Rico continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves westward near the Greater Antilles. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern Bahamas through Saturday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category: Transportation and Logistics