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Hurricane Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2024-11-08 06:58:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0600 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 930 FONT13 KNHC 080558 PWSAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0600 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 AT 0600Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) 2(13) X(13) 1(14) HOUMA LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 3( 4) 8(12) 4(16) 4(20) 1(21) X(21) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) 4(17) 1(18) X(18) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) 2(14) X(14) MERIDA MX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Hurricane Rafael (AT3/AL182024)
2024-11-08 06:58:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RAFAEL STRENGTHENS INTO MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 12:00 AM CST Fri Nov 8 the center of Rafael was located near 24.7, -87.5 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 956 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Rafael Public Advisory Number 19
2024-11-08 06:58:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 080558 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Special Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 1200 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 ...RAFAEL STRENGTHENS INTO MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.7N 87.5W ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM NNE OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Rafael. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 87.5 West. Rafael is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a general westward to west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to move over the central Gulf of Mexico for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Rafael is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible today. A weakening trend is forecast to begin late tonight and continue through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category: Transportation and Logistics