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Hurricane SIMON Forecast Discussion Number 10
2014-10-04 04:41:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI OCT 03 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 040241 TCDEP4 HURRICANE SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 800 PM PDT FRI OCT 03 2014 Satellite estimates from TAFB, SAB and University of Wisconsin CIMSS indicate that Simon has reached hurricane intensity with 65 kt. Simon is the 13th hurricane of the quite active eastern North Pacific hurricane season of 2014, and another cyclone moving very near or over Socorro Island, Mexico. Hourly observations from that island provided by the Mexican Navy have been very useful in determining the structure of Simon. The cloud pattern is better organized tonight with a small but well- defined inner core as indicated by the convective ring displayed in several microwave overpasses during the past several hours. Simon has the opportunity to strengthen a little more during the next 24 hours as it continues to move over a pool of 29.5 degree Celsius water and extremely low shear. After 36 hours, the circulation of Simon will begin to weaken as it moves over cooler waters and into a more stable environment. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance which suggests Simon reaching its peak intensity in a day or so. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 10 kt. However, Simon is reaching the southwestern edge of the high pressure ridge centered over Mexico, and approaching a large mid-level trough over the Central Pacific. This pattern calls for a gradual turn toward the northwest and north during the next 3 days as indicated in the official forecast. Beyond 3 days, the steering pattern becomes more complex, and the cyclone either recurves to the northeast as suggested by the GFS or begins to meander as forecast by the ECMWF. Since Simon is expected to be a weaker storm by the end of the forecast period, it will likely move little while embedded within the much lighter low-level flow. The last portion of the forecast is highly uncertain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 19.2N 111.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 19.9N 113.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 20.8N 115.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 21.8N 116.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 22.5N 117.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 23.9N 116.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 25.0N 116.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 26.0N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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