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Hurricane VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 17
2014-11-03 09:36:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM PST MON NOV 03 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 030836 TCDEP1 HURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 100 AM PST MON NOV 03 2014 Satellite images indicate that Vance is maintaining its intensity, with very cold-topped inner core convection. Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB remain at 90 kt, and the initial intensity is held at that value as well. Vance's upper-level outflow is becoming slightly impeded over its southwest quadrant, suggesting that southwesterly shear over the hurricane is already beginning to increase. The window of opportunity for additional strengthening is quickly closing, since the SHIPS model indicates the vertical shear increasing to 24 kt in 12 hours and to 30 kt in 24 hours. The NHC forecast shows only a slight increase in strength today, with a weakening trend beginning in 12-24 hours, and is near or slightly above the intensity model consensus. Although the track forecast brings the cyclone near the coast by 72 hours, the upper-level environment is expected to be extremely hostile and the system should be reduced to remnant low or even completely dissipate by that time. There has been a little deceleration and the motion is now 320/12 kt. Over the next day or two, Vance should recurve around the western periphery of a mid-level subtropical ridge. The cyclone is then likely to move north-northeastward between the ridge and a trough over extreme northwestern Mexico. By the end of the forecast period, the motion could become erratic since the circulation will probably become quite shallow and be steered by the weaker low-level flow. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous one and is close to the dynamical model consensus. Some additional adjustments to the wind radii were done based on ASCAT data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 14.5N 110.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 16.0N 110.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 17.9N 110.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 19.6N 109.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 21.4N 108.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 23.2N 107.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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