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Hurricane VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 19
2014-11-03 21:44:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM PST MON NOV 03 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 032044 TCDEP1 HURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 100 PM PST MON NOV 03 2014 Earlier today it appeared that Vance was beginning to weaken. However, that trend has ended and recent satellite images suggest that the hurricane is a little better organized. The eye is again evident in satellite images and the inner core of the cyclone is well intact. The initial intensity is nudged upward to 95 kt, using a blend of the Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The hurricane is now moving northward at about 10 kt located on the western side of a mid-level ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico. Water vapor images show a high amplitude trough digging to the west of Vance. This feature is expected to steer the system north-northeastward during the next couple of days, bringing a much weaker cyclone near the southwestern coast of Mexico in 2 to 3 days. Even though Vance has strengthened some this afternoon, steady or even rapid weakening is still anticipated due to a pronounced increase in southwesterly shear and drier air. In fact, the SHIPS model shows extremely hostile shear conditions with values near 30 kt tonight and more than 40 kt tomorrow. The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and lies very close to the model consensus. The current forecast calls for Vance to become a tropical depression offshore. However, if Vance does not begin to weaken soon, then the chances of tropical storm conditions reaching the coast will increase. Moisture from Vance and its remnants should spread northeastward across Mexico and into the south-central United States during the next several days. This is likely to produce heavy rains over portions of these areas through Thursday or Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 16.4N 110.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 17.8N 110.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 19.6N 109.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 21.4N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 23.4N 108.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 25.0N 108.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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