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Post-Tropical Cyclone ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 31
2015-06-04 22:40:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU JUN 04 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 042040 TCDEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 200 PM PDT THU JUN 04 2015 Although the low-level center of Andres remains intact, organized deep convection has been absent from the center for more than 12 hours. In addition, what minimal convection remains is displaced a considerable distance to the northeast of the center. On this basis, Andres is being designated as a remnant low, and advisories are being terminated at this time. Gradual weakening of the vortex is expected to continue during the next couple of days due to unfavorable environmental conditions, and global models show Andres degenerating into an open trough by Saturday. The NHC forecast calls for dissipation between 48 and 72 hours. The initial motion estimate is 095/03. Now a shallow system, the remnants of Andres are expected to be primarily steered by the combination of low-level ridging to the northwest, along with a tug by the large circulation of Hurricane Blanca to the east. This should induce a slow east-southeastward to southeastward motion until complete dissipation. For additional information on this remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 20.1N 124.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 20.0N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/1800Z 19.7N 123.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/0600Z 19.1N 123.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1800Z 18.7N 122.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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