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Post-Tropical Cyclone Andres Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-05-11 16:38:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue May 11 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 111438 TCDEP1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Andres Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021 900 AM MDT Tue May 11 2021 Hostile environmental conditions have reduced Andres to an exposed, low-level cloud swirl. Although a small burst of convection was noted earlier this morning over 100 n mi northeast of the center, Andres has been without organized deep convection near its center for over 12 hours. Therefore, the cyclone has become a remnant low, and this will be the final NHC advisory on Andres. The remnant low is moving just south of due west and will continue moving westward within the low-level trade wind flow until it dissipates on Wednesday night. Overnight scatterometer data indicated that 20-25 kt winds were confined to the northwest quadrant of Andres, between the cyclone and a subtropical ridge to its northwest. Continued weakening is expected as the remnant low moves into a drier, more stable environment with increasing wind shear and decreasing sea-surface temperatures. This is the last NHC advisory on Andres. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 15.8N 111.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 12/0000Z 15.8N 112.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 12/1200Z 15.7N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Brown
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Andres Graphics
2021-05-11 16:37:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 11 May 2021 14:37:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 11 May 2021 14:37:25 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Andres Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2021-05-11 16:36:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE MAY 11 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 111436 PWSEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDRES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012021 1500 UTC TUE MAY 11 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDRES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BROWN
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Andres (EP1/EP012021)
2021-05-11 16:36:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ANDRES BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON ANDRES... As of 9:00 AM MDT Tue May 11 the center of Andres was located near 15.8, -111.4 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Andres Public Advisory Number 10
2021-05-11 16:36:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue May 11 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 111436 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Andres Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021 900 AM MDT Tue May 11 2021 ...ANDRES BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON ANDRES... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 111.4W ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Andres was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 111.4 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and the remnant low is forecast to dissipate on Wednesday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Andres. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Brown
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