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Post-Tropical Cyclone Emily Forecast Discussion Number 9
2017-08-02 04:32:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 01 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 020232 TCDAT1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Emily Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017 1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 01 2017 The center of Emily has become exposed again tonight, with satellite images showing the skeletal circulation well to the west of any distant convection. The shallow cyclone hasn't really produced any organized deep convection in about 24 hours, with only small puffs that quickly fade out due to dry air and shear. In addition, the cyclone is embedded within a frontal zone, and no analysis shows Emily with a warm core. Given these considerations, Emily has lost the requisite characteristics of a tropical cyclone, and is being declared post-tropical. Thus, this is the last advisory on Emily. The cyclone has taken a turn to the north-northeast but should resume a northeast motion overnight ahead of a deep-layer trough. The track forecast has been adjusted a bit to the left based on the initial position only, with the models in good agreement on the general northeast course. Emily should gradually weaken due to increasing shear and dry air aloft, and acquire more extratropical characteristics on Wednesday. Dissipation of the low is forecast within 3 days as it opens up into a trough. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 30.9N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 02/1200Z 32.3N 76.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 03/0000Z 33.9N 73.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 03/1200Z 35.0N 70.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 04/0000Z 36.0N 67.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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