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Post-Tropical Cyclone Gert Forecast Discussion Number 20
2017-08-17 22:39:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Aug 17 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 172039 TCDAT3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Gert Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082017 500 PM AST Thu Aug 17 2017 Gert is now post-tropical. The circulation has become quite elongated, and the remaining deep convection appears to be primarily associated with frontal boundaries. A pair of late-arriving ASCAT passes from around 1300 and 1400 UTC indicated that Gert was weaker than previously estimated. Based on the ASCAT data, the initial intensity has been lowered to 55 kt. The initial wind radii were also adjusted based on the ASCAT data. The initial motion estimate is a brisk 060/34 kt. Gert should move quickly northeastward for the next 12 to 24 h while gradually spinning down. After that time, it should slow down and turn more toward the north while merging with or being absorbed by another extratropical low. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts have incorporated guidance from NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center. Swells from Gert should continue to affect the coast of the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada through tonight. These swells are likely to produce dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office for more information. This is the last NHC advisory on Gert. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 44.8N 46.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 18/0600Z 47.8N 40.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 18/1800Z 50.6N 36.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 19/0600Z 52.5N 35.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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