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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Forecast Discussion Number 37
2016-09-06 16:47:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 061446 TCDAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2016 There has been little change in the structure of Hermine since the last advisory, as it remains a post-tropical low pressure system with a few small patches of convection located to the south and west of the center. Buoy data suggests the circulation is slowly decaying, so the initial intensity is now a somewhat uncertain 50 kt. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to continue to weaken during the next couple of days due to the lack of baroclinic forcing and cool sea-surface temperatures along the forecast track, and the new intensity forecast has the winds decreasing below tropical storm force by 48 hours in agreement with the global models. After that time, the system is expected to be absorbed by a new frontal system moving eastward across the New England States. Hermine has slowed its forward motion, which is now 270/3. A slow and erratic motion, possibly including a cusp or a loop, is likely during the next 24 hours. After that, the cyclone should move northeastward in advance of the above-mentioned frontal system. The new forecast track is a little faster than the previous track after 24 hours, and it is in best agreement with a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. The tropical storm warning for Long island may be discontinued later today if the winds north of the center continue to decrease. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 39.5N 71.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 07/0000Z 39.3N 72.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 07/1200Z 39.4N 72.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 08/0000Z 39.9N 72.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 08/1200Z 40.5N 71.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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