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Post-Tropical Cyclone NORBERT Forecast Discussion Number 24
2014-09-08 10:51:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON SEP 08 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 080851 TCDEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 200 AM PDT MON SEP 08 2014 There has been no organized deep convection within Norbert's circulation for more than 12 hours now, so the system is being declared a post-tropical cyclone. The initial wind speed is lowered to 35 kt in basic agreement with a 0524 UTC ASCAT-B overpass that indicated wind vectors of around 32 kt in the southwestern quadrant. Since Norbert is expected to move over even cooler waters, it is presumed that a faster rate of decay should occur during the next couple of days, with dissipation forecast in 2-3 days. The official wind speed forecast shows slightly faster weakening than the previous one, with the expectation that the remnant low of Norbert will be very weak when it approaches the north-central Baja California peninsula. Norbert has been moving northwestward or 320/5 kt. The post- tropical cyclone should turn toward the north and northeast during the next couple of days ahead of a mid-tropospheric trough advancing eastward offshore of the California coast. In 2-3 days, the shallow remnant circulation should be pushed east-northeastward or eastward by the low-level flow toward the coast of the northern Baja California peninsula prior to dissipation. The official track forecast is essentially the same as the previous one and in best agreement with the multi-model consensus TVCE. Although Norbert is weakening, tropical moisture should continue to spread northward across northern Mexico and the southwestern United States. This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these area during the next day or two. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Norbert. For future information on the post-tropical cyclone, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFEP1 and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 27.4N 118.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 08/1800Z 27.7N 118.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 09/0600Z 28.5N 118.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 09/1800Z 29.0N 117.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 10/0600Z 29.3N 116.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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