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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2024-09-15 22:57:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 152057 PWSAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082024 2100 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DANVILLE VA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) RALEIGH NC 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FAYETTEVILLE 34 1 17(18) 4(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 5( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CHERRY PT NC 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 5 7(12) X(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MOREHEAD CITY 34 7 8(15) X(15) X(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) SURF CITY NC 34 16 15(31) 1(32) X(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) WILMINGTON NC 34 16 15(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) BALD HEAD ISL 34 40 18(58) X(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 7 36(43) 7(50) X(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 17(17) 5(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) LITTLE RIVER 34 38 29(67) 2(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) LITTLE RIVER 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 45 28(73) 2(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GEORGETOWN SC 34 48 28(76) 2(78) X(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 27 27(54) 2(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) CHARLESTON SC 50 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CHARLESTON SC 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 7 15(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight (AT3/AL082024)
2024-09-15 22:57:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND COASTAL FLOODING... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 the center of Eight was located near 32.0, -78.0 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Public Advisory Number 1
2024-09-15 22:57:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 152056 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024 500 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 ...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND COASTAL FLOODING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.0N 78.0W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Edisto Beach, South Carolina northward to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach, South Carolina northward to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 78.0 West. The disturbance is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the system should reach the coast within the warning area on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before the system makes landfall. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area beginning late tonight. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River, SC to Oregon Inlet, NC... 1-3 ft Neuse and Bay Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft Pamlico and Pungo Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Through Wednesday, Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will bring 3 to 6 inches of rainfall with isolated totals near 8 inches across northern and northeast portions of South Carolina along with the North Carolina Coastal Plain. Across the rest of North Carolina and much of Virginia, the potential tropical cyclone will bring 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated totals near 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to isolated to scattered flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ero TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes may occur Monday across eastern North Carolina and vicinity. SURF: Swells are forecast to affect portions of the coast of the southeastern United States during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category: Transportation and Logistics