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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Public Advisory Number 2
2024-11-04 03:54:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Sun Nov 03 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 040254 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 1000 PM EST Sun Nov 03 2024 ...SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON MONDAY... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 76.9W ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24-36 hours. Interests in Cuba and the Florida Keys should closely monitor this system as additional watches or warnings could be required on Monday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 76.9 West. The system is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h) and a turn more northwestward is forecast on Monday and expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move near Jamaica by late Monday and be near or over the Cayman Islands late Tuesday into Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. This system is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday with additional strengthening forecast after that time. The system could be near hurricane intensity as it passes near the Cayman Islands in the northwestern Caribbean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by late Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica by late Monday. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and southern Cuba through mid-week. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with locally up to 9 inches are expected. Flooding could occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible. Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States mid to late week. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica on Monday and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Papin
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Forecast Advisory Number 2
2024-11-04 03:53:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 040253 TCMAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0300 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 76.9W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 76.9W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 76.9W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.2N 76.9W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.0N 77.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.9N 78.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 19.8N 80.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.8N 82.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...115NE 100SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.5N 84.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 25.5N 87.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 26.5N 89.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 110NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 76.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 04/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Patty Graphics
2024-11-04 03:36:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Nov 2024 02:36:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Nov 2024 02:36:51 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics