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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2024-11-04 03:55:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 040255 PWSAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0300 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 3(22) 1(23) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 4(30) 1(31) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 4(17) 2(19) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) 1(16) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 3(14) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 5(19) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 10(28) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) 5(42) 1(43) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) 1(15) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 1(33) X(33) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 51(65) 1(66) X(66) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 1(27) X(27) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 21(40) 1(41) X(41) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 39(42) 8(50) X(50) X(50) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 4(17) X(17) 1(18) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 2( 2) 32(34) 6(40) X(40) 1(41) X(41) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KINGSTON 34 X 3( 3) 13(16) 1(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen (AT3/AL182024)
2024-11-04 03:54:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON MONDAY... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN... As of 10:00 PM EST Sun Nov 3 the center of Eighteen was located near 13.3, -76.9 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Public Advisory Number 2
2024-11-04 03:54:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Sun Nov 03 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 040254 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 1000 PM EST Sun Nov 03 2024 ...SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON MONDAY... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 76.9W ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24-36 hours. Interests in Cuba and the Florida Keys should closely monitor this system as additional watches or warnings could be required on Monday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 76.9 West. The system is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h) and a turn more northwestward is forecast on Monday and expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move near Jamaica by late Monday and be near or over the Cayman Islands late Tuesday into Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. This system is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday with additional strengthening forecast after that time. The system could be near hurricane intensity as it passes near the Cayman Islands in the northwestern Caribbean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by late Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica by late Monday. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and southern Cuba through mid-week. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with locally up to 9 inches are expected. Flooding could occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible. Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States mid to late week. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica on Monday and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Papin
Category: Transportation and Logistics