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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Forecast Discussion Number 1
2024-11-13 21:54:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 132053 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 400 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024 Showers and thunderstorms associated with the broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea that the National Hurricane Center has been monitoring have increased and are showing signs of organization. While some mid-level rotation is evident in visible satellite images near a recent burst of convection, the low-level circulation remains broad and elongated. However, the system is expected to become a tropical storm within the next day or so and it is likely to bring tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within the next 36 to 48 hours. Therefore, the National Hurricane Center is initiating Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories for this disturbance. The initial motion is more uncertain than normal since the system is still in the formative stage, but the best estimate is westward at about 5 kt. A continued westward motion is anticipated during the next few days with a slower forward speed as the system moves into the western Caribbean Sea. As steering currents weaken, the system is forecast to meander just offshore, or along the coast of Central America for a couple of days late this week and over the weekend. Later in the period, the ridge to the north, begins to erode and slide eastward as a mid-level trough digs into the western Gulf of Mexico, which will induce a northwestward motion towards the end of the forecast period. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement with the overall track evolution, however they differ on potential land interaction in Central America, and if the system moves onshore and how long it remains inland. The NHC forecast lies near the consensus models, near HCCA and TVCA consensus aids. Since the disturbance currently lacks a well-defined center, users are reminded that the average forecast track uncertainty is larger in these situations, and future track adjustments may be required. The models suggest a more well-defined center should develop during the next day or so. Once the system becomes better organized and develops an inner core, the environmental conditions appear favorable for strengthening. Thus, the NHC forecast shows strengthening while the system moves into the western Caribbean sea. However, there remains higher than normal uncertainty in the intensity forecast due to potential land interactions. If the system remains over water, it could be stronger than indicated below, but if it moves over Central America weakening would occur. The NHC forecast lies near the consensus aids given this uncertainty. Based on the NHC forecast, Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches have been issued for portions Nicaragua and Honduras. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua. 2. The disturbance is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves near the eastern coast of Honduras and northeastern Nicaragua on Friday and Saturday. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of that area. 3. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico at or near hurricane strength by early next week where there is a risk of dangerous storm surge and damaging winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. 4. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system could bring to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the Florida Keys, and Cuba during the middle portion of next week. Residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 16.2N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 14/0600Z 16.2N 80.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 14/1800Z 16.3N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 16.4N 84.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 16.4N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 16.3N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 16.1N 84.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 16.3N 85.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 18.3N 88.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2024-11-13 21:49:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 13 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 132048 PWSAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 2100 UTC WED NOV 13 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 6(16) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 4(17) 9(26) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) 5(18) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) 13(13) 23(36) 17(53) 7(60) 2(62) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 10(19) 4(23) 3(26) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11) BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) TEGUCIGALPA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) P SAN JOSE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11) $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen (AT4/AL192024)
2024-11-13 21:48:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA... As of 4:00 PM EST Wed Nov 13 the center of Nineteen was located near 16.2, -79.0 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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