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Remnants of Eleven-E Forecast Advisory Number 9
2024-10-03 22:39:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 032039 TCMEP1 REMNANTS OF ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 2100 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 94.6W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 94.6W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 94.6W...POST-TROPICAL FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.5N 94.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 94.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS PLEASE SEE FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 6
2024-10-03 22:39:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 032038 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 PM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 Leslie is becoming better organized this afternoon, but continues to battle wind shear due to the outflow from Hurricane Kirk. The center is becoming more well-defined on visible satellite imagery and convection is increasing along the southern semi-circle. Subjective Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB show a Data-T number of 3.0, corresponding with the initial intensity of 45 kt. The tropical storm is drifting westward at 270/5 kt along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge in the eastern Atlantic. Leslie is forecast to move slowly westward over the next day or so before gradually turning west-northwestward, then accelerating to the northwest this weekend. Model guidance has shifted slightly westward, and the official NHC track forecast has followed suit and lies near the simple consensus aids. Leslie has been slowly strengthening today. Steady strengthening is expected over the next 36-48 hr as the shear from Hurricane Kirk lessen, and Leslie moves through a more favorable atmospheric and oceanic environment. The spread in model intensity guidance has increased this afternoon, and the hurricane models have suggested the potential for rapid strengthening. The official NHC intensity forecast lies near the simple consensus aids, although it still lies below some of the regional hurricane models and HCCA. The intensity forecast will plateau by the end of the forecast period as Leslie moves into the cold wake of Kirk. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 10.1N 31.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 10.2N 32.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 10.5N 33.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 10.9N 35.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 11.7N 36.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 12.6N 37.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 13.7N 39.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 16.3N 42.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 19.3N 45.6W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132024)
2024-10-03 22:38:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Oct 3 the center of Leslie was located near 10.1, -31.5 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics