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Subtropical Storm Patty Forecast Advisory Number 1
2024-11-02 09:54:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 020854 TCMAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172024 0900 UTC SAT NOV 02 2024 SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 34.4W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 180SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 540SE 600SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 34.4W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.3N 34.7W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 39.1N 31.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 30SE 120SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 38.2N 27.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 70SE 80SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 38.0N 23.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 38.7N 19.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 39.8N 15.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 41.3N 11.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.9N 34.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Lane Graphics
2024-11-02 09:43:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Nov 2024 08:43:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Nov 2024 08:43:30 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Lane Forecast Discussion Number 3
2024-11-02 09:42:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024 115 WTPZ43 KNHC 020842 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132024 200 AM PDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Satellite images indicate the center of the small tropical cyclone is likely embedded underneath a cold dense overcast. The deep convection has been quite persistent tonight, and as a result the objective satellite intensity estimates have increased to around 40 kt, while the subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB range from 30-35 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the system is upgraded to Tropical Storm Lane, with an initial intensity of 35 kt. Lane is moving westward at 270/6 kt, and this general motion should continue over the next few days as the storm moves along the southern extent of a subtropical ridge to its north. There was a slight southward shift in the guidance envelope this cycle, and the updated NHC track prediction was nudged in that direction. Warm sea-surface temperatures and low shear conditions could allow Lane to strengthen a little more today. However, southwesterly shear is expected to increase over the storm on Sunday, which should then induce weakening of the small tropical cyclone through early next week. Lane is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low in 48 h due to the negative effects of shear and drier environmental air, and it could dissipate even sooner than forecast if the GFS solution is correct. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 11.1N 129.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 11.0N 130.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 11.0N 131.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 11.1N 133.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 11.2N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/1800Z 11.2N 136.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0600Z 11.3N 137.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category: Transportation and Logistics