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Summary for Hurricane Kirk (AT2/AL122024)
2024-10-06 22:36:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KIRK SPREADING LARGE SWELLS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...INCREASED RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Oct 6 the center of Kirk was located near 37.0, -46.2 with movement NNE at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 961 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 18
2024-10-06 22:35:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 062035 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 PM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 Leslie's satellite imagery has become a little more ragged as southwesterly shear has disrupted the overall convective pattern. The deep inner core convection has become a little more broken the last few hours. Subjective and objective estimates range from 75 to 85 kt, with a T4.5 from both TAFB and SAB. Based on these satellite estimates, the initial intensity is held at 80 kt. Leslie is moving northwestward (310/8 kt) while being steered by a subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. The ridge will continue to build to the northeast of the system, which should steer the hurricane northwestward throughout the forecast period. Models continue to be in good agreement, the NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous which remains near the latest consensus aids. The hurricane has started to enter a more hostile environment. Southwesterly shear has started to increase, with drier mid-levels, and upper-level convergence along the forecast path. The latest NHC forecast follows the latest model trends with gradual weakening beginning on Monday. Since Leslie is a relatively small tropical cyclone, it could be more susceptible to these negative factors and weaken even faster than the NHC forecast later in the period, as suggested by some of the global and hurricane regional models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 14.0N 38.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 14.9N 39.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 16.2N 41.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 17.6N 43.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 19.0N 44.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 20.3N 46.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 21.2N 47.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 22.5N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 24.1N 51.7W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2024-10-06 22:35:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 062034 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 2100 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Category: Transportation and Logistics