je.st
news
Summary for Tropical Storm Ileana (EP4/EP092024)
2024-09-12 22:44:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM ILEANA... ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF ILEANA THROUGH THE WEEKEND... As of 2:00 PM MST Thu Sep 12 the center of Ileana was located near 19.9, -108.0 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Category:Transportation and Logistics
LATEST NEWS
Tropical Storm Ileana Graphics
2024-09-12 22:39:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 20:39:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 21:28:53 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Discussion Number 2
2024-09-12 22:39:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 122038 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 200 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 The overall cloud pattern as seen in GOES-18 visible and infrared imagery does not appear to have changed very much from earlier today. While the RMW still seems to be a bit large, the cyclone displays a large area of cold cloud tops with some evidence of curved banding. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates are a consensus T-2.5/35 kt from both TAFB and SAB, while recent objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 33 to 42 kt. Based on the subjective and objective intensity estimates, the depression is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Ileana with an initial intensity estimate of 35 kt. The initial motion estimate is north-northwest, or 340/8 kt, which is a bit faster than before. The overall synoptic steering pattern is unchanged in the models from earlier. A deep-layer trough located over the western United States will continue to steer the cyclone toward the north-northwest through Friday, bringing the system near the southern portion of Baja California Sur. After that time, this trough is forecast to weaken, which should cause steering currents to weaken. This evolution should induce a slower motion toward the north, likely over the waters of the southern Gulf of California. There were no major changes to the guidance for the first 36 to 48 h of the forecast, and very little change was made to the previous official forecast. Thereafter, the guidance is a bit farther west, with some of the models keeping the cyclone moving north-northwestward over the Gulf of California rather than moving inland over mainland Mexico. The NHC forecast was only nudged slightly west of the previous forecast, not as far west as the consensus aids during the 48 to 96 h time period. Ileana is currently located within an environment of warm ocean waters, moderate vertical wind shear, and within a fairly moist low- to mid-level troposphere. However, very dry air is evident on water vapor imagery to the northwest of the cyclone. These conditions are unlikely to change before the cyclone reaches Baja California Sur on Friday, and the NHC forecast shows some strengthening before then. Land interaction with the peninsula should cause some weakening. When the center reaches the Gulf of California, the sea surface temperatures are quite warm. While some restrengthening is possible after the cyclone emerges back over water, Ileana will encounter increasing westerly wind shear and drier air by hour 48, so it won't have much time to restrengthen. After that time, weakening is expected as Ileana's convection is sheared off, and the cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low in about 72 h. It should be noted that the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery show the cyclone becoming a remnant low a bit earlier around hour 60. Although the cyclone will likely dissipate prior to 96 h, a 96 h point is carried as a remnant low for continuity. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Storm Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions of western Mexico and southern Baja California through this weekend. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of the Baja California Sur on Friday, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 19.9N 108.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 21.1N 108.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 22.7N 109.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 24.1N 110.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 14/1800Z 25.3N 110.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 15/0600Z 26.3N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 27.2N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/1800Z 29.4N 111.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics