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Summary for Tropical Storm Rafael (AT3/AL182024)
2024-11-04 21:59:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN JAMAICA LATE TONIGHT... As of 4:00 PM EST Mon Nov 4 the center of Rafael was located near 15.5, -76.7 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Rafael Forecast Discussion Number 5
2024-11-04 21:55:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM EST Mon Nov 04 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 042054 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 400 PM EST Mon Nov 04 2024 Deep convection continues to burst near the center of the system, with improving overall structure and curved banding depicted in recent satellite images. Recent Air Force Hurricane Hunter data has found flight level winds around 40-45 kt with higher SFMR values. The Hurricane Hunters also indicated that an eyewall appears to be developing. Based on the aircraft data, the intensity is being increased to 40 kt. The system is now designated as Tropical Storm Rafael, and is the seventeenth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. The storm has jogged a bit to the right of the previous track, and the initial motion is estimated 010/8 kt. A turn to the northwest is expected later tonight, and that motion is forecast to continue during the next few days as a ridge builds over the southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean. This motion should take the center of the system near Jamaica tonight, near or over the Cayman Islands by late Tuesday, and across western Cuba on Wednesday. After that time, when the system reaches the Gulf of Mexico, the model solutions diverge, which appears to be due to differences in the steering patterns and vertical depth of the storm. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and remains close to the various consensus models. However, it should be noted that the track forecast over the Gulf of Mexico is of lower confidence. Given the improving overall structure with an inner core developing, combined with favorable environmental factors of low wind shear, high moisture, and warm SSTs all support intensification. Models all support steady to rapid intensification, and SHIPS RI probabilities indicate a near 40 percent chance of a 30 kt increase in the next 24 hours and a near 50 percent chance of a 55 kt increase in 48 hours. Thus, the latest NHC intensity forecast and peak intensity has been increased and lies near the higher end of the guidance envelope through the middle part of the forecast period. Based on the SHIPS RI guidance, future upward intensity adjustments during the first 48 h may be necessary in subsequent forecast cycles. In a few days, when the system reaches the central Gulf, a sharp increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear, drier air, and slightly cooler waters should end the strengthening trend and induce weakening, and the NHC intensity forecast follows these weakening trends and lies near the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids through the end of the forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Rafael is forecast to be a hurricane when it passes near or over the Cayman Islands by Tuesday evening where damaging hurricane-force winds, a dangerous storm surge, and destructive waves are expected. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica tonight and Tuesday. 2. Additional strengthening is forecast before Rafael reaches western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday where there is an increasing risk of a dangerous storm surge and damaging hurricane-force winds. 3. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Lower and Middle Florida Keys beginning late Wednesday or Wednesday night. 4. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to portions of the northern Gulf coast. Residents in this area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast. 5. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain to portions of the western Caribbean, including Jamaica and Cuba through mid-week, where flooding and landslides are possible. Heavy rainfall will spread into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States mid to late week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 15.5N 76.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 16.8N 77.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 18.5N 79.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 20.2N 80.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 22.1N 82.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 23.6N 83.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 24.7N 85.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 26.0N 87.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 27.4N 89.4W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2024-11-04 21:54:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 042054 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 2100 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 2(14) X(14) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) 2(19) X(19) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) 17(43) 1(44) X(44) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) 24(58) 1(59) 1(60) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) 1(16) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 22(33) 3(36) X(36) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14) X(14) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 5(30) 1(31) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 4(20) 1(21) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) 1(13) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 2(14) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 9(19) 3(22) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) 6(26) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 10(34) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 10(23) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 3(13) X(13) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 22(43) 2(45) 1(46) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) 1(15) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 48(53) 17(70) 1(71) X(71) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 13(30) X(30) X(30) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 3( 3) 24(27) 50(77) 4(81) 1(82) X(82) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 43(47) 6(53) 1(54) X(54) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 5(28) X(28) X(28) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 5( 5) 40(45) 27(72) 2(74) X(74) X(74) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAMAGUEY 34 X 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 12(12) 49(61) 5(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X 1( 1) 22(23) 5(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MONTEGO BAY 34 29 57(86) 1(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) MONTEGO BAY 50 1 25(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) MONTEGO BAY 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) KINGSTON 34 65 12(77) X(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) KINGSTON 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Category: Transportation and Logistics