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Summary for Tropical Storm Sara (AT4/AL192024)
2024-11-16 00:31:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SARA CRAWLING WESTWARD NEAR THE HONDURAS COAST... ...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 6:00 PM CST Fri Nov 15 the center of Sara was located near 16.2, -86.3 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Discussion Number 9
2024-11-15 21:35:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 152035 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 300 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Satellite images depict a large convective band to the northwest of the center of Sara, which has been meandering just offshore between the northern coast of Honduras and the Bay Islands. The current intensity is uncertain. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates were T3.0/45 kt from both TAFB and SAB, though there was a recent partial scatterometer pass around 1430 UTC that depicted winds only around 30-33 kt in the northeastern semicircle. The initial intensity remains 45 kt for this advisory, which may be generous. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later this evening which will help better determine the structure and intensity of the system. Sara's forward motion has become sluggish today with a slow westward motion, estimated at 270/2 kt. This slow motion is anticipated to continue over the next 12 to 24 h. Afterwards, the mid-level ridge which has been steering Sara is forecast to shift northeastward, and Sara is then expected to resume a somewhat faster westward to west-northwestward motion later this weekend. Along the forecast track, the center of Sara is forecast to move through the Gulf of Honduras on Saturday and into Belize on Sunday. The NHC forecast track is near the previous, with a slightly slower forward motion in the near term. The intensity forecast is largely dependent on the land interaction with Central America. The model trends and the track forecast keep the system's center just offshore through landfall in Belize, thus the latest NHC shows some slight strengthening. After landfall, the system is forecast to weaken rapidly. The current NHC forecast shows the system as a remnant low in the Bay of Campeche, however it is possible the system dissipates over the Yucatan peninsula sooner than forecast. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous and lies near the consensus aids. The primary hazard associated with Sara will continue to be catastrophic flash flooding, with preliminary reports already suggesting substantial rainfall has occurred near the north coast and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara will cause catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern portions of Honduras. 2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of Guatemala, the coast of Belize and portions of the coast of Mexico where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 16.2N 86.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 16.2N 86.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 16.4N 86.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 16.8N 87.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 17.2N 89.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 60H 18/0600Z 18.3N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/1800Z 19.9N 92.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Sara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2024-11-15 21:35:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024 775 FONT14 KNHC 152035 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 2100 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COZUMEL MX 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BELIZE CITY 34 6 20(26) 24(50) 6(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) BELIZE CITY 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 1 7( 8) 5(13) 2(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) GUANAJA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GUANAJA 50 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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