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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2017-07-18 22:35:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 182035 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082017 200 PM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017 Strong northwesterly shear continues over the depression with deep convection confined to the southern portion of the circulation. Recent visible satellite images also show that there are a couple of low-level vorticity centers rotating about the mean center. A recent ASCAT pass that caught the eastern portion of the depression only revealed winds of around 20 kt. However, the initial intensity will remain a possibly generous 30 kt for this advisory since the instrument did not sample the area of strongest convection to the southwest of the center. The strong vertical wind shear currently over the cyclone is expected to continue during the next day or two, and the official forecast show no strengthening during this time. In about 3 days, a more favorable upper-level pattern could materialize, but given the uncertainty about the structure of the tropical cyclone at that time and the potential interaction of nearby Tropical Storm Greg, the NHC intensity forecast does not reflect much change in wind speed. The initial motion estimate is 270/4. The track forecast remains quite uncertain as the models show some interaction between the depression and Tropical Storm Greg. Most of the models indicate that the depression will move slowly southwestward during the next couple of days until Greg passes to the north in about 72 hours. After that occurs, the cyclone should begin to move west- northwestward at a faster forward speed under the influence of a low- to mid-level ridge that is predicted to extend westward from northwestern Mexico. Due to the expected complex interaction between, and possible merger of, the two tropical cyclones the forecast track of the depression remains quite low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 14.9N 119.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 14.7N 120.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 14.4N 120.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 14.0N 121.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 13.7N 122.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 13.7N 123.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 14.0N 126.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 14.5N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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