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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2017-07-19 04:52:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 190252 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082017 800 PM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017 The depression continues to produce small bursts of deep convection, but microwave data and the last few visible images of the day indicate that the low-level center is exposed to the northeast of the thunderstorm activity. Visible imagery also shows a band of cirrus flowing right over the depression's circulation, indicative of about 25 kt of west-northwesterly shear. Since Dvorak intensity estimates have not changed from six hours ago, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. The big question mark for both the depression's future track and intensity is how it will interact with Tropical Storm Greg to its east. All the global models show the depression swinging to the southwest and south of Greg during the next several days as the two circulations interact. The GFS model shows Greg becoming the dominant cyclone, with the depression eventually dissipating. However, the ECMWF and Canadian models seem to prefer the depression becoming the dominant system and absorbing Greg. The UKMET is somewhere in between, with the two circulations merging. Since Greg is the stronger of the two systems at this point, we are favoring that being the dominant one, and the new NHC forecast shows the depression weakening over time and dissipating by 96 hours. However, there is a lot of uncertainty in this forecast, and adjustments would be needed if it becomes apparent that the depression will end up being the dominant cyclone. The depression is moving slowly westward with an initial motion of 270/4 kt. Regardless of the cyclone's future intensity, a more pronounced interaction looks increasingly likely, and the track guidance has shifted southward on this forecast cycle. As a result, the updated NHC track forecast has also been shifted south of the previous forecast, and it lies close to the various consensus aids. This solution is not, however, quite as far south as the HWRF, GFS, and HCCA models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 14.8N 119.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 14.6N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 14.2N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 13.7N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 13.2N 122.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 13.3N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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