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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2017-07-19 10:58:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 190858 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082017 200 AM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017 The overall convective pattern of the depression has changed little since the previous advisory and remains ragged looking. Cloud tops colder than -70C have persisted near and to the south of the low-level center, yielding satellite estimates of T2.5/35 kt from SAB and UW-CIMSS ADT. However, the intensity will remain at 30 kt for this advisory since a 0500Z ASCAT-B overpass indicated a few wind vectors of 27-28 kt in the southwestern quadrant. The initial motion estimate is 20/05 kt. There is no significant change to the previous track forecast or reasoning. The global and regional models are in decent agreement on the depression engaging in some weak binary interaction with the larger circulation of Tropical Storm Greg as the latter cyclone passes about 200 nmi to the north over the next few days. The new forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track and lies near the TVCN consensus model. The upper-level westerly outflow on the east of Hurricane Fernanda is expected to keep the depression in a moderate to strong vertical wind shear regime for the next couple of days. After that, northerly outflow from Greg should act to maintain unfavorable shear conditions across the depression, preventing any significant strengthening until the system dissipates by 96 hours. The new intensity forecast is identical to the previous advisory and follows the consensus model IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 14.6N 120.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 14.3N 121.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 13.8N 122.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 13.3N 122.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 12.9N 123.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 13.2N 124.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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