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Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Discussion Number 12
2016-08-31 10:54:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 310854 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 500 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 The low-level center is difficult to find, but given the strong westerly shear and continuity, it is assumed that it is located to the west of a large area of deep convection devoid of banding features. Dvorak numbers have not changed, and the initial intensity remains at 30 kt. Most of the guidance shows a significant increase in the shear, but at the same time forecasts a slight increase in intensity. The NHC forecast follows the guidance and the previous forecast showing a slight increase in the winds before the cyclone becomes extratropical in 48 hours. The depression is moving slowly toward the northeast at 4 kt, and is already embedded within the southwesterly flow ahead of an amplifying mid-latitude trough. This pattern favors a continuation of the northeast track away from the U.S coast with a significant increase in forward speed. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 34.8N 74.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 35.7N 72.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 37.7N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 40.0N 63.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 42.5N 57.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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