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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-09-25 18:52:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM PDT SUN SEP 25 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 251652 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 1000 AM PDT SUN SEP 25 2016 Deep convection associated with the low pressure area located well southwest of the Baja California has become better organized overnight, and early morning visible satellite imagery indicate that the circulation has become better defined. Based on these observations, and Dvorak classifications of T2.0 and T1.5 from TAFB and SAB respectively, advisories are being initiated on a 30-kt tropical depression at this time. The depression is currently located over warm water and within an area of low vertical wind shear, which is favorable for some gradual strengthening today. However, in about 24 hours, the tropical cyclone is forecast to move into an area of higher southwesterly shear caused by large mid- to upper-level low and associated trough over northwestern Mexico. The global models suggest that the shear will become quite strong in 36 to 48 hours as the cyclone begins moving over cooler waters. This should result in a rapid spin down, and the system is likely to become a post-tropical remnant low within 3 days. The official intensity foreast is slightly above the SHIPS guidance but is in good agreement with the intensity consensus. Since the depression is still in its formative stage, the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 360/4 kt. The cyclone is expected to be steered slowly northward or north-northeastward during the next couple of days around the western portion of a weak mid-level ridge that extends southwestward from southern Mexico. By 72 hours, the low should turn northwestward in the low-level steering flow after it weakens and becomes a vertically shallow system. Although the ECMWF and GFS models are on opposite sides of the guidance envelope, the track models are in general agreement on the overall scenario and the NHC forecast lies near the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1700Z 15.6N 119.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 16.2N 119.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 16.8N 119.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 17.4N 119.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 18.5N 118.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 21.0N 117.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 23.0N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1200Z 24.5N 119.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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