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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2014-09-24 22:37:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED SEP 24 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 242036 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 200 PM PDT WED SEP 24 2014 Deep convection formed closer to the center of the depression late this morning, but recent satellite imagery suggests that strong upper-level winds are beginning to cause a separation between the center and the convection once again. Dvorak intensity estimates were unchanged at 1800 UTC and a recent ASCAT pass indicated maximum winds of around 30 kt. Strong upper-level northeasterly winds are expected to prevent significant strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours, however the depression could become a low-end tropical storm during this time. The shear is forecast to decrease late Thursday and Friday, which should allow for some modest strengthening before the cyclone moves into less favorable thermodynamic conditions late in the period. The updated NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is again close to the SHIPS guidance. The initial motion estimate is 280/12, a little more westward than estimated earlier today. The model guidance indicates that the cyclone should turn west-northwestward and continue on that general heading during the next several days, to the south of a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. Later in the period, the cyclone should turn northwestward as a weakness in the ridge develops along 115W. The GFS continues to show a slightly stronger cyclone turning northward, while the ECMWF takes a weaker system westward. The NHC track lies between these solutions and is close to the multi-model consensus. The updated track is a little west of the previous advisory, primarily due to the more southward and westward initial position. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 15.1N 106.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 15.7N 108.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 16.7N 110.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 17.7N 112.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 18.5N 114.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 19.7N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 20.5N 116.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 21.5N 117.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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