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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2013-11-01 15:43:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI NOV 01 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 011443 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 1500 UTC FRI NOV 01 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 3 5 6 6 16 38 NA TROP DEPRESSION 63 36 24 26 40 42 NA TROPICAL STORM 34 57 61 59 41 20 NA HURRICANE X 2 9 9 3 X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 2 8 8 3 X NA HUR CAT 2 X X X 1 X X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 35KT 40KT 40KT 35KT 20KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 13(17) 3(20) X(20) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 11(15) 4(19) X(19) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) X(11) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) X(12) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 10(11) 21(32) 9(41) 3(44) X(44) X(44) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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