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Tropical Depression Eight-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2017-07-18 16:46:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 181446 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082017 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017 Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure located well southwest of the Baja California peninsula developed closer to the system's center overnight. It has also produced convection for more than 24 hours despite strong northwesterly shear. Based on the recent slight improvement in organization, and Dvorak T-numbers of 2.0 and 2.5 from SAB and TAFB, advisories are initiated on a 30-kt tropical depression. A large upper-level low centered to its north-northwest is currently imparting about 25-30 kt of shear over the system. The shear is not expected to lessen during the next day or two, and only slight strengthening is indicated in the official forecast during that time. After 72 hours, the upper-level wind pattern could become less hostile which could allow for some strengthening if the tropical cyclone survives the shear over the next couple of days. The latter portion of the intensity forecast is of low confidence. The depression has been moving slowly westward or west- northwestward, but is expected to begin a slow southwestward motion later today, which is due in part to the circulation of Tropical Storm Greg to its east. Later in the forecast period, as Greg passes to its north, the tropical cyclone should begin to move west- northwestward at a faster forward speed. An alternative scenario shown by the GFS and UKMET models is for the depression to weaken and be absorbed by the circulation of Greg in a few days. Given the possible interaction of Greg, the confidence in the track forecast is also quite low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 14.6N 118.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 14.6N 119.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 14.3N 120.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 13.8N 121.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 13.4N 121.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 13.0N 123.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 13.3N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 14.0N 130.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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