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Tropical Depression Eight-E Forecast Discussion Number 6
2017-07-19 22:33:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 192033 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082017 200 PM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017 Visible images confirm that the depression is not very well organized with limited banding features and a partially exposed center. ASCAT and satellite classfications suggest that the winds have dropped to 25 kt, and this will be the initial wind speed. Cirrus cloud motions show that the northwesterly shear continues to impinge on the depression. While this shear could abate somewhat tomorrow, it is likely to quickly resume again by Friday due to enhanced upper-level outflow from Tropical Storm Greg. Thus little change in intensity is shown in the new NHC intensity forecast, in line with the latest guidance, with some weakening expected on Friday. It would not be surprising if the circulation of the depression opened up into a trough during the next day or two. The initial motion of the depression is west-southwest at 5 kt. The system should move to the southwest or south-southwest around the circulation of Tropical Storm Greg for the next day or two. Model guidance has come into better agreement that Greg will be the dominant cyclone, and the track is shifted southward from the previous one. By 72 hours, all of the global models open up the depression into a trough as the weak system gets pulled northwestward toward Greg. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 14.1N 121.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 13.6N 122.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 12.9N 122.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 12.3N 123.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 12.0N 123.5W 20 KT 25 MPH 72H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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