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Tropical Depression Eight-E Forecast Discussion Number 7
2017-07-20 04:34:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 200234 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082017 800 PM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017 The depression has changed little in structure since the last advisory. Small bursts of convection have been pulsing near the center of circulation, with a band extending to the southwest. The initial intensity remains 25 kt, mainly because there has been no new data to suggest otherwise. The initial motion is slowly west-southwestward, or 245/5 kt. The depression is expected to be steered around the western side of Tropical Storm Greg's circulation during the next couple of days, which will induce a slow southwestward to southward motion. The track models have locked into this scenario, and the new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one. Water vapor imagery continues to show the depression being blasted by strong upper-level winds to the south of a large upper-level low, which is resulting in about 15 kt of shear. Although the cyclone could escape some of this shear while it moves southward around Greg, the damage will probably already be done by that point. Since the convection is already losing organization, and the global models show the cyclone's circulation being disrupted by Greg soon, the depression is expected to degenerate to a remnant low by 36 hours, if not sooner. The remnant circulation should then dissipate south or southeast of Greg by day 3. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 13.9N 122.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 13.4N 122.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 12.7N 123.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 12.0N 123.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/0000Z 11.9N 123.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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