je.st
news
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Graphics
2024-10-02 16:38:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 14:38:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 14:38:06 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
LATEST NEWS
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2024-10-02 16:36:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 021436 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 900 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 First light visible imagery and a GMI microwave overpass during the night show that the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E is again a little to the southwest of the previous track. While the system is part of a large area of convection, the convection is generally poorly organized, and there has been little change in the various satellite intensity estimates since the last advisory. Based on this, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The track forecast is of low confidence. Satellite imagery and model analyses indicate that the depression is currently absorbing or merging with the vorticity of the EP97 disturbance, and this has resulted in the system center moving slowly southwestward during the past 6-12 h. The models have diverse solutions for the subsequent track, with the GFS and Canadian taking the cyclone northward into eastern Mexico, while the UKMET forecasts a west-northwestward motion offshore parallel to the coast and the ECMWF forecasting the system to dissipate over water. The new forecast track is a compromise between the the GFS and UKMET forecast and shows the center making landfall between 36-48 h in the current Tropical Storm Warning area. This forecast has some significant changes in direction and speed from the previous forecast, and additional adjustments may be necessary later today and tonight. Regardless of exactly where the cyclone tracks, it is expected to be in an environment of moderate to strong easterly shear through at least 48 h. This should limit the intensification, and the forecast peak intensity of 40 kt remains at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. The main impact from this system is expected to be heavy rainfall, which could lead to flooding and mudslides over portions of southern Mexico and western Guatemala. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of southern or southeastern Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for portions of the southern coast of Mexico. 2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala this week. Flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 14.9N 95.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 14.8N 96.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 14.9N 96.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 15.3N 97.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 16.0N 97.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/0000Z 16.4N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2024-10-02 16:36:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 159 FOPZ11 KNHC 021436 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 1500 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P MALDONADO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) P ANGEL 34 5 13(18) 5(23) 1(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) P ANGEL 50 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HUATULCO 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 95W 34 4 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category: Transportation and Logistics