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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Public Advisory Number 3A
2024-10-02 13:32:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 021132 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 600 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 ...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 95.8W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 95.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (8 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will be near the coast of Mexico in the Tropical Storm Warning area late tonight or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before the center reaches the coast, and the system could become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area today and tonight. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, and Tabasco. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Kirk Graphics
2024-10-02 10:49:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 08:49:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 09:22:56 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 11
2024-10-02 10:47:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 020847 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2024 Satellite imagery over the past 6 to 12 hours indicates a gradual improvement in the organization of Kirk's central dense overcast. The low-level center is likely underneath the southern portion of the central convective area. The cyclone is also growing in size. Convective banding in the southeast semicircle sprawls out a far distance away from the center. The latest subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB range from 65 to 77 kt, while objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are ranging from 61 to 71 kt. The initial intensity is nudged up to 70 kt based on an average of the subjective estimates. Kirk has been moving northwestward, or 305/12 kt. A similar heading at perhaps a slightly slower forward speed is expected through Thursday as Kirk is steered by a subtropical ridge. By the end of the week, Kirk will gradually turn northward in between an approaching deep-layer trough over the western Atlantic and a subtropical ridge to the east of the hurricane. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected by the end of the weekend, and the models remain in good agreement on this scenario. The new NHC track forecast is nearly unchanged from the previous one through 72 h, but a bit west of the previous forecast beyond 72 h. The NHC forecast is in best agreement with the TVCA consensus aid. Favorable environmental conditions are forecast to continue for the next 60 to 72 hours as Kirk travels over warm sea-surface temperatures and within a relatively moist environment with weak deep-layer vertical wind shear. These favorable conditions should allow for continued steady strengthening, and Kirk is forecast to become a major hurricane on Thursday. By hour 96, Kirk is likely to experience stronger southwesterly wind shear, which should begin a weakening trend. The latest intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and lies in the middle to upper portion of the guidance envelope. Kirk is a large tropical cyclone and is expected to grow into a very large and powerful major hurricane over the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 17.5N 42.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 18.4N 43.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 19.5N 44.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 20.7N 46.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 21.9N 47.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 04/1800Z 23.4N 49.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 25.3N 50.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 30.8N 50.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 37.4N 44.8W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics