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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2024-10-02 22:44:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 022043 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 2100 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P MALDONADO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P ANGEL 34 1 9(10) 8(18) 4(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) P ANGEL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HUATULCO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 95W 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Hurricane Kirk (AT2/AL122024)
2024-10-02 22:43:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KIRK EXPECTED TO BECOME A LARGE AND FORMIDABLE MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Oct 2 the center of Kirk was located near 18.9, -44.0 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Thirteen Forecast Discussion Number 2
2024-10-02 22:42:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM CVT Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 022041 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 800 PM CVT Wed Oct 02 2024 Tropical Depression Thirteen has become a little better organized since the last advisory, with improving circulation definition and convection continuing to curve cyclonically in a banded fashion on its western side. However, Dvorak intensity estimates have not changed much this afternoon, still at T2.5/35-kt from TAFB and T1.5/25-kt from SAB, so the initial intensity will remain 30 kt. The depression appears to be moving just south of due west following along from previous fixes with a current estimated motion at 260/7 kt. This motion has resulted in a slight southward track shift from the previous forecast but remains close to the consensus aid TVCN. This motion should continue over the next day or so guided by a steering ridge to the north and enhanced convection along the southern semicircle potentially pulling it southward as the depression organizes. Track guidance then shows TD13 turning west-northwestward after 48 hours and ultimately northwestward towards the end of the forecast period as the ridge steering becomes more eroded on its western side. The track guidance was very similar to the previous cycle, albeit a touch further south in 5 days, and the latest NHC track has been nudged a bit further south towards the end of the forecast. The forecast for this cycle shows a somewhat faster intensification rate than the prior advisory, with the system now becoming a hurricane in 48 hours, and peaking at 80 kt in 72 hours, due to decreasing shear and plenty of warm ocean waters and moisture early on in the forecast. The intensity guidance then proceeds to show the intensity plateauing after 72 hours as the system could encounter the edge of Hurricane Kirk's large area of ocean upwelling. Both HAFS-A/B show this potentially limiting the intensity in the longer term, but the NHC intensity forecast could be conservative if TD13 ends up tracking further south than forecasted. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 10.5N 29.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 10.2N 30.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 10.1N 31.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 10.2N 32.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 10.6N 33.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 11.1N 35.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 11.8N 36.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 13.8N 38.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 16.5N 42.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Torres-Vazquez/Papin
Category: Transportation and Logistics