je.st
news
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2024-10-03 17:19:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 248 FOPZ11 KNHC 031435 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ANGEL 34 3 X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 95W 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
LATEST NEWS
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 8
2024-10-03 17:19:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 909 WTPZ41 KNHC 031435 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 900 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 The depression continues to produce a large, but poorly organized, area of convection, with the low-level center most likely in the northern portion of the convective mass. Satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB remain 30 kt, and this is the initial intensity for this advisory. The center position has a larger than normal amount of uncertainty, and the initial motion is also a bit uncertain at 045/5. The track forecast guidance suggests a generally northward motion should occur during the next 24-36 h, and the new track forecast follows this in bringing the center to the coast of Mexico in 12-24 hours and inland over the Isthmus of Tehuantepec after that. It is possible that some adjustments to the forecast may occur if data that better shows the center position becomes available. While the environment does not favor significant strengthening before landfall, any intensification at all would bring the system to tropical storm strength, and the new intensity forecast continues to show this occurring. After landfall, the system should quickly weaken, with the remnants eventually becoming absorbed into the large area of disturbed weather that is forming over the western Gulf of Mexico. While the forecast shows the system lasting through 36 h, it could dissipate at any time as it crosses the mountains of Mexico. Regardless of whether intensification occurs, the primary threat remains heavy rainfall that will continue over portions of southern Mexico for the next day or two. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of southern Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for portions of the southern coast of Mexico. 2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico this week. Flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, especially across portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 15.2N 95.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 15.9N 95.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 17.1N 95.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/0000Z 18.2N 95.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL/INLAND 48H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Kirk Graphics
2024-10-03 16:43:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 14:43:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 15:23:06 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics