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Tropical Depression Emilia Forecast Discussion Number 16
2018-07-01 17:13:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 01 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 011513 CCA TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Emilia Discussion Number 16...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062018 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 01 2018 Corrected to add DISSIPATED line at 72H. Somewhat surprisingly, a small area of convection southwest of the center of Emilia has persisted overnight, despite SSTs of around 25C below the cyclone. Although the depression is located within a fairly hostile thermodynamic environment, an upper-level trough to the northwest may be providing enough dynamical support to maintain the convection, at least for now. No recent scatterometer data is available, so the initial intensity has been held at 25 kt based on the latest Dvorak fixes from TAFB and SAB. The cyclone will still likely lose all of its convection and become a remnant low later today or early tomorrow since the upper-level dynamical support should decrease over the next 12 hours or so and it will be moving into a progressively drier environment. The various dynamical models unanimously indicate that Emilia will then steadily spin down before dissipating sometime between 48 and 72 h. The initial motion is still 295/10 kt, and as long as Emilia maintains convection, it will likely remain on this heading. Once the system becomes a remnant low, the low-level tradewind flow will cause it to turn westward until dissipation occurs in a few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 19.3N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 19.9N 124.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 20.6N 126.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 03/0000Z 21.2N 129.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/1200Z 21.5N 131.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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