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Hurricane Rafael Public Advisory Number 20
2024-11-08 09:45:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 080845 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 300 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 ...RAFAEL MOVING WESTWARD IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 88.0W ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM NNE OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Rafael. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 88.0 West. Rafael is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a general westward to west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to move over the central Gulf of Mexico for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Rafael is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible today. By tonight, a steady weakening trend is forecast and should continue through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Rafael Forecast Advisory Number 20
2024-11-08 09:45:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 080845 TCMAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0900 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 88.0W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 105SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 88.0W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 87.7W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.6N 89.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.8N 90.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.2N 91.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 5SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.5N 92.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.0N 92.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 26.3N 91.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 24.5N 91.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 23.0N 92.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 88.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Rafael Graphics
2024-11-08 07:00:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Nov 2024 06:00:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Nov 2024 06:00:41 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics