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Tropical Depression FIVE-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2015-07-11 22:33:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 112033 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 400 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 The cloud pattern of the depression appears to be gradually organizing. Visible satellite images show banding features increasing on the east side of the circulation and some of the outer bands are affecting the southern coast of Mexico. The initial wind speed estimate remains 30 kt, in agreement with the satellite classifications from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT. It should be noted that recent ASCAT passes showed slightly higher winds, but those appear to be partly associated with a Tehuantepec gap wind event. The depression is expected to strengthen during the next several days while it remains over warm water and in atmosphere of low shear and high moisture. The GFS and ECMWF models show the system substantially deepening during the next several days, and the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows a 63 percent chance of the system strengthening by 25 kt during the next 24 hours. Conversely, the GFDL and HWRF models continue to predict only slight strengthening. The official forecast is a little higher than the previous one and lies at the high end of the model guidance, following the SHIPS model. The initial motion estimate is 300/9. A continued west-northwestward to northwestward motion at about the same speed is expected during the next couple of days while the system is steered by a mid-level ridge over the south-central United States. After that time, a slower west-northwestward motion is forecast when the ridge weakens. Little change was made to the previous forecast and it remains near the middle of the guidance envelope. Although the current track forecast remains offshore of Mexico, a small deviation to the north of the projected track could require the issuance of tropical storm watches or warnings for a portion of the southwestern coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 13.7N 99.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 14.5N 101.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 15.7N 103.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 16.8N 105.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 17.7N 106.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 18.7N 108.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 19.7N 110.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 20.0N 111.7W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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